What it is about

This article explores the voting patterns of Jewish Americans in the recent US presidential election, highlighting a shift in support towards Donald Trump compared to the previous election. Despite favoring the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, Trump’s gains among Jewish voters showcase intriguing new dynamics in voter allegiances.

Why it matters

Traditionally a cornerstone of Democratic support, Jewish Americans are expressing notable shifts in preferences, reflecting broader changes in the political landscape. As Israel-related issues remain high priorities, these trends offer invaluable insights into the evolving relationship between US political parties and Jewish Americans.

The Background

Historically, the Jewish community in the US has aligned reliably with the Democratic Party, akin to the patterns observed over the last century. Yet, geopolitical developments, especially events in Israel, are influencing election outcomes. The 2023 Hamas attacks and ensuing political discourse could be influencing part of this shift in preference, potentially bolstering Republican support.

The Big Picture

Polls conducted after the election consistently show Kamala Harris retaining majority support among Jewish voters, albeit with narrower margins than those seen in the 2020 election. This suggests a small but significant erosion in the traditional Democratic stranglehold, attributable mainly to increased concerns about Israel’s global standing and security.

The Numbers

Various polls conducted illustrate differing spreads in Jewish voting patterns:

• GBAO strategies for J Street found Harris won 71% to Trump’s 26%, down by 11 percentage points from the previous election.
• Harvard University’s study showed a 63% to 36% split in favor of Harris, whereas Biden held a healthier margin previously.
• AP/Fox analysis reported a 66% to 32% divide, again hinting at Trump doubling down on his share.

The narrowed margins suggest Republicans are making inroads with communities previously thought unreachable, representing potential swing demographics in the forthcoming elections.

Understanding the Shift

Trump’s purported pro-Israel stance played a key role, attracting voters increasingly questioning Democratic commitments to the Jewish state. However, metrics like healthcare and democracy showed sustained Democratic favorability.

Subgroups within the Jewish community also varied in allegiance. Over-60 voters, and those frequenting religious services, showed differing support levels, hinting at demographic segmentation within the electorate towards future elections.

This story was first published on timesofisrael.com.